Deconstructing the Threat: Is it a Plan, a Wish, or a Test Balloon?

Gavin Newsom insists Donald Trump is “gravely serious” about a third term, but what does that actually mean? Deconstructing the threat reveals several possibilities: it could be a concrete plan, an aspirational wish, or simply a political test balloon.
If it’s a concrete plan, it implies that Trump and his advisors are actively exploring legal and political strategies to circumvent or challenge the 22nd Amendment. This would represent a constitutional crisis in the making, as Newsom suggests.
If it’s an aspirational wish, it may be more about Trump’s psychological makeup—his desire for power and his admiration for strongmen—than a workable plot. In this scenario, the talk is a reflection of his mindset, but may not translate into action.
If it’s a test balloon, the goal is to float the idea and gauge the reaction from the public, the media, and the political establishment. The “Trump 2028” hats and off-the-cuff remarks could be part of an effort to see how much resistance the idea generates. Newsom’s vocal opposition is, in this sense, a direct response to the test. The true nature of the threat remains unclear, but Newsom is adamant it should be treated as the most serious of these possibilities.