Tax Certainty or Coincidence? The Timing of JP Morgan & GS UK Expansion

Is it a massive coincidence or a coordinated exchange? The question is unavoidable as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs announce sweeping UK expansion plans immediately after the budget ensured tax stability for the banking sector.
JP Morgan’s commitment involves a £3 billion, 3 million square foot headquarters in Canary Wharf. The sheer magnitude of the project suggests it was ready to go, merely awaiting the green light from the Treasury regarding tax policy.
Goldman Sachs’ commitment to doubling its Birmingham staff with 500 new technology roles provides a significant regional boost. This diversification outside of London is politically attractive, fitting perfectly with the government’s leveling-up agenda.
The public record shows both institutions had vehemently argued against tax hikes, claiming they would damage the economy. The avoidance of these taxes appears to have been the trigger that simultaneously released both the London anchor project and the Midlands job expansion.
Government officials have positioned the announcements purely as evidence of renewed corporate confidence, dismissing any suggestions of a quid pro quo. However, the exact timing and nature of the commitments suggest a carefully managed political and economic outcome.